Decisions in the Fog
It was 2007. We were deep in a capital dredging project for a coastal terminal. Midway through Q3, material costs surged 18% due to geopolitical tensions. My procurement lead looked at me like a deer in the headlights. “Do we push forward or delay until costs stabilize?”
The schedule said one thing. The cost model said another. And my gut? It was somewhere in between.
That’s when I realized: project management isn’t just about execution. It’s a constant decision-making exercise under pressure, uncertainty, and conflicting priorities. And you need more than instinct to survive.
What Are Project Management Models?
Models are frameworks we use to structure our thinking. They’re not sacred texts. They’re decision tools — lenses that help you weigh options, identify tradeoffs, and communicate logic.
In my career, I’ve seen dozens of models paraded through boardrooms and project kickoffs. Most die after the first pivot. A few survive. The good ones help you think better.
The Models I Actually Use
Let’s get practical. Here are the decision-support models I keep in my PMO toolbox:
1. Waterfall Model
Still valid for:
- Regulatory-driven work
- Infrastructure and construction
- Hardware or sequential workflows
Why it works: It’s predictable, reportable, and appeals to finance.
Watch out for: Change resistance, inflexible plans.
2. Agile/Iterative Models
I don’t need to sell Agile. You already use it — or pretend to.
Where it shines: Software, R&D, anything with evolving requirements.
My warning: Agile isn’t faster. It’s just more adaptive. But only if your stakeholders are, too.
3. Stage-Gate (Phase-Gate)
Used in:
- Product development
- Pharma & heavy engineering
Strength: Forces discipline in investment decisions.
Failure mode: Bureaucracy disguised as rigor. Don’t let gates become toll booths.
4. Earned Value Management (EVM)
Great for:
- Projects with measurable outputs and baselines
I use it to:
- Quantify progress
- Flag schedule/cost mismatches
- Convince skeptical finance teams
Limitation: Doesn’t handle Agile well.
5. Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM)
Part of the Theory of Constraints toolkit.
When I use it:
- High-uncertainty, resource-constrained projects
- When traditional CPM keeps slipping
Caution: Requires PMO mindset shift.
Decision-Making Methods That Work
Models frame your work. But decision methods guide your choices when the data’s fuzzy, the stakes are high, and the clock is ticking.
1. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
The classic. Still relevant. I use it to:
- Justify major scope decisions
- Evaluate outsourcing vs. in-house
Rule: If benefits don’t exceed costs with a 30% buffer, it’s a no.
2. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
Helps when:
- Tradeoffs exist (e.g., time vs. quality)
- Multiple stakeholders have different priorities
Example: Choosing between three software platforms with different licensing models, support terms, and rollout speed.
3. SWOT + PESTLE
I combine these for risk-related decisions:
- SWOT: Internal strengths and weaknesses
- PESTLE: External forces (Political, Economic, Social, etc.)
It’s old-school, but it forces holistic thinking.
4. Delphi Method
I use this when:
- Expert judgment is needed
- Groupthink is dangerous
Works best in:
- Estimating unknowns
- Planning innovation projects
5. Decision Trees & Monte Carlo Simulations
For:
- Complex projects with many uncertainty paths
- Contingency planning
If your PMO has a risk manager worth their salt, they’re already doing this.
Leadership Tip: The Real Art Is Framing
Most project decisions don’t fail because the math was wrong. They fail because the question was wrong.
My process:
- Define the problem — without jargon
- List options — include the ugly ones
- Weigh tradeoffs — in business terms
- Decide who decides — governance clarity is power
Don’s Rule: A well-framed decision beats a well-modeled one every time.
Final Thought
Models and methods don’t run projects. People do. But if you want to lead in complexity, you need frameworks that clarify, simplify, and justify. Because sometimes your gut will be wrong — and your board will want more than a shrug.
In next month’s column, I’ll walk through a live case where we used MCDA to pick a SaaS vendor across three continents. And yes, it got messy.
